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Jefferies upgrades Lupin to hold from an underperform; raises target price to Rs 1460

Jefferies has revised its stance on Lupin, upgrading it from Underperform to a Hold rating, while concurrently increasing the target price from Rs 1,190 to Rs 1,460 per share.

The recommendation comes on the heels of a projected 4-7% increase in FY25/26 revenue, attributed to heightened revenue from India and gSpiriva, the latter enjoying a greater market share in the absence of competition. Jefferies identifies these segments as high-margin contributors, foreseeing an 8-14% rise in earnings per share (EPS).

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Aligned with the ongoing re-rating of the pharmaceutical sector’s valuations, Jefferies has adjusted the target price-earnings (PE) multiple to 22x, up from 20x. This adjustment yields a revised target price of Rs 1,460, reflecting the positive outlook on Lupin’s performance.

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Despite the optimistic forecast, Jefferies notes certain factors warranting caution. These include the early stages of improvement in the base business, the substantial concentration risk associated with gSpiriva, and the notable 50% return within a six-month timeframe.

In the initial stages of enhancing the base business, there exists a notable concentration risk associated with gSpiriva. Furthermore, the stock has witnessed a significant 50% surge in the past six months.

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